2009-04-14

Weekly Focus: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

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EURUSD Outlook

This week could be a very important week for the EURUSD. After had a significant bullish movement since March 11 from 1.2456 to 1.3736, the pair was corrected to the downside and now testing the 50% Fibo retracement (of 1.2456 - 1.3736) around 1.3103 area. The pair attempted to push lower on April 10, bottomed at 1.3092 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair bounced back to the upside and closed convincingly above 1.3103 key level. On 4h chart we can see that the pair might be forming a descending triangle pattern, which is a bearish pattern. Important resistance is seen at 1.3340 area. So for this week, the important range to watch will be 1.3103 - 1.3340 area. As long as the pair stay below 1.3340, I prefer a further bearish scenario, a movement below 1.3000 psychological level for this week.


GBPUSD Outlook

After had a significant bullish movement from 1.3654 to 1.4956, the GBPUSD corrected lower last week, bottomed at 1.4581. As you can see in 4h chart below, I will be watching the trendline support and 38.2% Fibo retracement (of 1.3654 - 1.4956) around 1.4460 for this week. The bullish momentum can not be said over yet but once the trendline violated to the downside or the pair traded below 1.4460, we could have a potential bearish outlook towards 1.4150 - 1.4000 area.



USDJPY Outlook

As you can see on my daily analysis since Wednesday, I have been focusing on the rising wedge formation appeared on 4h chart, which is a bearish reversal pattern. It was right that after violation to the downside of the rising wedge, the pair was traded lower (bottomed at 99.31 on Wednesday) but failed to stay below 23.6% Fibo retracement (of 93.54 to 101.43) at 99.50 area and bounced back to the upside. For next week, the 99.50/30 support area should be our key level. A consistent movement below that area should lead to further bearish scenario towards 97.50 support area. On the upside, the 101.43 level should be an important resistance at this phase. Break above that level should trigger further bullish scenario challenging 104.20 area.


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The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

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