2009-04-21

Sell Sweden’s Krona Versus Dollar on Riksbank Policy, UBS Says

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(Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell Sweden’s krona in exchange for the dollar “as a short-term tactical trade,” UBS AG said in a note to clients before the Swedish central bank’s interest-rate decision tomorrow.

The Riksbank may lower its key interest rate as low as zero from 1 percent and say it will start purchasing corporate bonds, Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in a research report today. The krona will probably fall more than the euro against the dollar should investor aversion to riskier assets increase, the report said.

“The domestic economy in Sweden remains under pressure,” Kendrick wrote in the report. “If risk aversion takes hold, euro-dollar will likely come under pressure and euro-krona should head higher. Hence the dollar-krona trade recommendation.”

The krona fell 2.8 percent to 8.6958 versus the dollar, the fifth consecutive day of declines and the longest losing streak in seven weeks. Sweden’s currency depreciated as much as 1.9 percent to 11.2424 per euro, the weakest level in more than a month. The greenback will probably appreciate to 9 kronor, Kendrick predicted.

The Scandinavian currency has the highest correlation with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stocks among 45 currency pairs in the Group of 10 currencies, the UBS report said. The S&P 500 fell 4.3 percent today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net

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